Greece's ruling New Democracy party continues to hold a sizable lead in the polls, but a new survey suggests the government's dominance may owe as much to a fractured opposition as to growing public enthusiasm for Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
A poll conducted by Marc for the weekly newspaper Proto Thema places New Democracy at 30.8% in estimated vote share after reallocating undecided voters, roughly 14 percentage points ahead of ELAS, the political movement led by former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, which stands at 16.8%. PASOK remains a distant third with 11%.
While the figures leave New Democracy comfortably ahead, they also indicate that nearly seven out of ten voters are backing other parties, highlighting the limits of the governing party's electoral appeal after years in office.
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The poll points to an increasingly fluid opposition landscape. Tsipras's return has enabled ELAS to establish itself as the country's main opposition force, overtaking PASOK and reshaping the political contest. Although still well behind the government, ELAS has continued to gain modest ground.
The survey also records a sharp setback for Hope for Democracy, the party founded by Maria Karystianou, who emerged as a prominent campaigner for accountability following Greece's deadly Tempi rail disaster. The party fell to 7.4% from 10.5% in the previous Marc poll, losing more than three percentage points in a month and slipping to fifth place behind the nationalist Greek Solution party.
In raw voting intention, before undecided voters are redistributed, New Democracy stands at 27.3%, compared with 14.8% for ELAS and 9.5% for PASOK. Since Marc's June survey, the governing party has gained only half a percentage point—a modest increase despite its continued control of government and the absence of a unified opposition.
Public expectations remain tilted toward another New Democracy victory, with 65.6% of respondents predicting the party will finish first in the next election. However, fewer than one in five respondents believe it will secure an outright parliamentary majority, while nearly half expect it would need coalition partners or other parliamentary support to govern.
