The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), introduced as part of its broader green transition strategy, is partially reshaping the landscape of international trade. Its main objective is to curb «carbon leakage» - the phenomenon where industries move production to countries with looser environmental regulations in order to escape stricter EU climate rules. While the overall impact on the EU’s trade flows is expected to be limited, the mechanism could significantly affect specific countries and industries, according to a study by the International Monetary Fund.
CBAM is designed to protect EU-based companies that bear the financial burden of the bloc’s ambitious climate policies. It does this by imposing a charge on imported goods with high carbon footprints - such as iron, steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, and electricity - based on the amount of embedded carbon emissions and whether the country of origin already prices those emissions. This carbon levy ensures that imported products are not unfairly cheaper simply because they come from places with weaker climate standards.
Although CBAM formally took effect in October 2023, it remains in a transitional phase until the end of 2025. During this period, importers must report the carbon emissions of the goods they bring into the EU but are not yet required to pay the levy. Starting in 2026, however, the EU will begin charging importers according to its carbon pricing benchmark and the emissions intensity of their products.
The IMF estimates that CBAM will raise the cost of EU imports by around 0.1%, and non-EU countries exporting to the bloc will see their total export costs rise by an average of 0.04%. While this may seem marginal at the macroeconomic level, the financial burden will be more acute for countries with high-carbon exports and no domestic carbon pricing - such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Ukraine - especially in sectors like steel and electricity.
Greece, in relative terms, is less exposed to the mechanism. Only about 4.5% of the country’s total imports are affected by CBAM, and the value of these imports from non-EU countries amounts to just 0.1% of Greece’s GDP. As a result, the immediate macroeconomic and fiscal impact is expected to be modest.
However, the picture shifts when focusing on specific sectors. A large portion of Greece’s aluminum (89%) and iron and steel (75%) imports originate outside the EU, making these industries particularly vulnerable. According to the IMF study, CBAM could increase the import cost of primary aluminum by 3.9%, iron and steel by 2.9%, and cement and related products by a striking 19.7%. These added costs could ripple through the economy, especially in construction and heavy industry, where such materials are essential.
Greece’s dependence on a small number of carbon-intensive raw materials from high-emission countries may lead to price hikes and pressure on domestic industries. This challenge is compounded by the EU’s plan to phase out free emissions allowances for European businesses by 2035. Without an equivalent mechanism to protect EU exporters from carbon-related costs in global markets, companies in Greece and elsewhere may find themselves at a competitive disadvantage abroad.
