Greece is preparing for a steady rise in indirect taxation through 2029, according to the country’s Multiannual Fiscal Framework for 2026–2029, recently presented to the Cabinet by National Economy and Finance Minister
Kyriakos Pierrakakis and Deputy Minister Thanos Petralias. The projections reveal a clear shift in the tax mix during a period marked by slowing economic growth and stable inflation, a combination that is expected to intensify concerns about tax fairness.
The Greek economy, which has been recovering in recent years, is forecast to lose momentum. According to the government’s macroeconomic estimates, GDP growth is expected to slow from 2.4 percent in 2026 to just 1.3 percent in 2029. Inflation, however, is projected to remain steady, hovering between 2.2 and 2.3 percent throughout the period.
In this environment, indirect taxes—such as VAT and excise duties—are set to grow consistently. Government projections show revenues rising from €44.1 billion in 2026 to €46.5 billion in 2029, an increase of roughly 5.4 percent over three years. Direct taxes, which include income and corporate taxation, are also expected to increase but remain significantly lower, moving from €27.8 billion in 2026 to €33 billion in 2029.
The faster expansion of indirect taxation is closely tied to persistent inflation, which pushes up consumer prices and automatically expands the VAT base. At the same time, slower economic growth limits wage and income increases, constraining the rise in direct tax revenues. As a result, a larger share of the country’s tax burden continues to fall on consumption rather than income—a structure widely viewed as regressive, since it disproportionately affects lower-income households.
The government’s projections illustrate this shift clearly. In 2026, indirect tax revenues are expected to exceed direct tax revenues by €16.3 billion. By 2027, the gap narrows to €14.7 billion as direct taxes grow slightly faster. In 2028, indirect taxes are forecast to reach €45.4 billion against €31.4 billion in direct taxes, reducing the difference to €14 billion. By 2029, the gap shrinks further to €13.5 billion, but indirect taxes still dominate the country’s revenue structure.
