A newly ratified trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, set to take effect on August 1, is poised to deal a significant blow to Greek exports. The deal introduces a 15% tariff on a wide range of European products, adding substantial costs for Greek goods entering the American market. This development threatens to erode the competitiveness of Greek exports, especially when compared to products from countries outside the EU, such as Turkey and Egypt, which benefit from lower or zero tariffs under more favorable trade arrangements.
The timing of the agreement compounds the problem. The weakening of the US dollar against the euro is making European exports more expensive, putting further pressure on the pricing of Greek goods in the United States. In a market where price often dictates demand, this dual burden of tariffs and exchange rate shifts creates serious obstacles for Greek exporters trying to hold their ground.
The impact is not confined to direct trade costs. Broader economic repercussions are expected across the EU, as higher expenses and falling export volumes weigh on growth. This could lead to reduced demand for Greek products within the EU and globally. The tourism sector may also feel the effects, as countries facing slower economic growth may send fewer travelers to Greece.
Several Greek exports with a high dependency on the American market are now particularly vulnerable. These include table olives, olive oil, peaches, kiwis, wine, cement, and marble—products that could lose market share to rivals from countries enjoying better trade terms.
Adding to the uncertainty is the unresolved question of whether the new tariffs will apply to shipments already en route to the US. This ambiguity makes it difficult for exporters to calculate costs and finalize pricing, complicating trade operations at a critical time.
Although the agreement prevents the imposition of even steeper duties, it nonetheless reverses the positive trend Greek exports to the US had followed in recent years. Between 2020 and 2024, Greek exports to the American market grew at an average annual rate of 20.4%, with their share of total Greek exports rising from 3.75% to 4.89%. With the new tariffs and unfavorable exchange rates now in play, this upward trajectory is expected to stall.
