Goldman Sachs concluded its 29th European Financials Conference in Berlin, drawing over 100 listed financial institutions from across the continent. Among the key participants were Greece’s four systemic banks—Piraeus Bank, National Bank of Greece (NBG), Alpha Bank, and Eurobank. Their presence underscored Greece’s growing relevance in the European financial landscape, as international investors increasingly seek to diversify away from U.S.-centric exposure.
Investor interest was strong throughout the event, with discussions focusing on themes such as net interest income performance, capital return strategies, credit growth, and the evolving regulatory environment. One issue that featured prominently was the potential reintroduction of “cured” loans—previously non-performing assets that have returned to performing status—onto bank balance sheets.
While this represents a potentially attractive asset class for European lenders, Greek executives stressed that the market remains in its infancy, and meaningful progress is unlikely in the short term due to regulatory complexity and limited available volume.
Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its bullish outlook on three of the four Greek banks, maintaining “Buy” ratings on Piraeus Bank, NBG, and Alpha Bank, while assigning a “Neutral” rating to Eurobank. The firm cited Greece’s improved banking fundamentals, including robust profitability, restructured balance sheets, and improved asset quality, as key drivers of investor interest.
Piraeus Bank drew particular attention with its strategic acquisition of National Insurance, aiming to create a vertically integrated financial conglomerate combining banking and insurance services. The deal, expected to close by the end of 2025, is projected to enhance earnings stability and capital efficiency, with the bank forecasting an increase in return on tangible equity to 15% by 2027. Piraeus also reiterated its net interest income guidance and highlighted continued double-digit loan growth, while announcing its intention to distribute dividends to shareholders.
National Bank of Greece emphasized a disciplined approach to capital deployment. While it holds a significant capital surplus, the bank stated it would only pursue acquisitions that meet strict strategic and valuation criteria. In the absence of compelling opportunities, capital would be returned to shareholders. NBG sees long-term potential in wealth management, given the relatively low penetration in Greece, and expects further improvements in operational efficiency after sustained investment in digital transformation.
Alpha Bank focused on its lower-than-average sensitivity to interest rate changes, supported by a hedged deposit base and proactive risk management. The bank reported strong loan demand, particularly from large corporations, and is targeting €2 billion in net new lending for the year. Its acquisition of AstroBank in Cyprus is expected to enhance earnings and capital returns, though no additional expansion in Cyprus is currently planned.
Eurobank, while receiving a more cautious rating from Goldman, remains confident in its ability to meet 2025 profitability targets despite potential rate headwinds. Management expects loan growth, stronger investment returns, and healthy corporate lending spreads to offset any drag from lower interest rates. The bank is also integrating its acquisition of Hellenic Bank in Cyprus and remains active in cross-border lending, including in the Middle East.
