Greece’s government is, for now, ruling out a new windfall tax on the country’s oil refiners. But a sharp increase in industry profits during the first half of 2026, combined with persistent uncertainty in international energy markets, means the issue is unlikely to disappear - particularly if the European Union moves toward another bloc-wide intervention similar to the one introduced during the 2022 energy crisis.
The government’s current policy doesn’t include a new Temporary Solidarity Contribution on refining companies. That position, however, could be reconsidered if conditions in Europe’s energy market deteriorate substantially. There is a clear precedent.
At the height of the energy crisis triggered by the disruption of European energy supplies in 2022, the European Union adopted Regulation 2022/1854, which established a temporary solidarity contribution targeting companies in the crude-oil, natural-gas, coal and refining industries. Greece implemented the measure on so-called surplus profits and subsequently extended the levy to profits earned in 2023.
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No comparable European framework is currently in force. But if another escalation in the energy crisis were to prompt Brussels to pursue a coordinated intervention, the policy calculation in Athens could change quickly. That possibility is attracting attention because of the earnings reported by Greece’s two dominant refining groups.
Motor Oil reported net profit of €689.3 million in the first half of 2026, an increase of roughly 322% from a year earlier. HELLENiQ ENERGY, meanwhile, reported comparable net income of €393 million over the same period. A simple annualization illustrates the scale of the numbers, though it shouldn’t be treated as an earnings forecast.
If Motor Oil were to repeat its first-half performance during the second half, full-year net profit would reach roughly €1.38 billion. Applying the same assumption to HELLENiQ ENERGY’s comparable earnings would produce about €786 million for the year. Together, the two groups would therefore generate approximately €2.16 billion in profit in 2026 under this strictly hypothetical scenario. That figure, however, shouldn’t be confused with the amount that could be subject to a windfall levy.
There are several reasons. HELLENiQ ENERGY’s figure represents comparable net income rather than statutory earnings, while the previous solidarity contribution wasn’t calculated on the headline accounting profits that publicly traded companies report to investors. The tax base under the earlier system was different.
Under the Temporary Solidarity Contribution, taxable profits were compared with the company’s average taxable earnings during the 2018-2021 period. Profits were considered “surplus” only to the extent that they exceeded that historical average by more than 20%. A 33% contribution was then imposed on the excess amount.
As a result, even if Greece were eventually to revive exactly the same model, it wouldn’t amount to a 33% tax on the hypothetical €2.16 billion in combined 2026 earnings. Authorities would first have to determine each company’s taxable profit for 2026. They would then need to calculate the threshold representing “normal” profitability under whatever reference period and methodology were established by the legislation. Only profits above that threshold would potentially be subject to the special levy.
That distinction is important because headline earnings can considerably overstate the tax base available for a windfall contribution. For Athens, the decision would ultimately depend on three moving variables: the trajectory of European energy prices, the sustainability of the refiners’ unusually strong profitability and, crucially, whether Brussels decides that market conditions warrant another coordinated European response.
For now, Greece’s government says a new Temporary Solidarity Contribution isn’t part of its plans. But the combination of exceptional refinery earnings and renewed volatility in energy markets means the option remains politically relevant.
Should the energy crisis deepen while refining profits remain close to the levels implied by the first half of 2026, the debate could quickly shift from whether the profits are exceptional to whether - and how much - of that windfall should be redirected to households and the broader economy.
