Kimberly Guilfoyle’s future as U.S. ambassador to Greece has become something traders can put a price on. Polymarket, the online prediction market where participants wager on outcomes ranging from elections to geopolitical events, has opened markets on whether Guilfoyle will leave her diplomatic post in Athens before the end of 2026.
For now, traders are betting she stays. The market puts the probability that Guilfoyle will cease to be ambassador by Oct. 31 at roughly 7%. The odds rise to about 14% for departure by Dec. 31. The contracts opened Sept. 30 and had attracted more than $17,700 in trading volume as of Friday evening—modest by prediction-market standards, but enough to provide a real-time gauge of speculation surrounding her position.
Polymarket contracts trade between “Yes” and “No,” with their prices broadly reflecting the probability participants assign to an outcome. On the year-end contract, for example, “Yes” recently traded at around 15 cents and “No” at 87 cents.
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The wager didn’t emerge in a political vacuum. It followed scrutiny in Washington after a Wall Street Journal investigation and subsequent concerns raised by Democratic lawmakers about Guilfoyle’s activities in Greece and Southeastern Europe. Attention has focused in part on her role in promoting U.S. energy interests, including liquefied-natural-gas projects and the so-called Vertical Gas Corridor, which is intended to move gas northward from Greece through the Balkans.
Democrats in the House and Senate have called on the State Department to examine reports concerning Guilfoyle’s conduct, with some raising the possibility that she should be removed if allegations are substantiated.
Yet the most important political signal so far points in the opposite direction.Secretary of State Marco Rubio has publicly given Guilfoyle strong backing ahead of his visit to Athens, calling her “an incredibly effective advocate” for President Donald Trump’s agenda in Greece and Europe. Rubio said both he and Trump “deeply appreciate” her work and leadership in the region.
He also singled out energy—the area at the center of the controversy—as one of her accomplishments, praising her efforts to advance U.S. interests in Southeastern Europe and initiatives including the Vertical Gas Corridor. That support matters more than any prediction-market price. Ambassadors serve at the president’s pleasure, and explicit backing from both the secretary of state and, through Rubio, Trump significantly changes the political calculation.
Polymarket’s traders appear to have reached much the same conclusion. Washington may be arguing over Guilfoyle, but for now, the money says she will still be in Athens when the year ends.
