Monitoring data show that although the number of earthquakes has fallen since the seismic-volcanic episode of February 1–14, 2025, activity remains above the levels recorded before the crisis.
Research presented by Margarita Segou of the British Geological Survey at the annual conference of the European Geosciences Union in Vienna underscores this pattern. Her findings indicate that earthquake frequency continues to fluctuate above what experts define as normal background activity. Prior to the 2025 crisis, roughly five earthquakes per week exceeding magnitude 2 were considered typical; that threshold has not yet been consistently reached again.
Scientists had anticipated that ground deformation would ease after the crisis. Instead, it has accelerated, pointing to ongoing processes beneath the surface. Segou stresses that such episodes are not isolated events but part of the broader, long-term development of the volcanic system in the southern Aegean.
“The area remains highly active,” she says, noting that while it is not possible to predict when current deformation might lead to new earthquakes, the underlying drivers of the 2025 crisis are still present.
To illustrate the concept, Segou likens seismic deformation to snapping a solid chocolate bar, while aseismic deformation resembles trying to break softened chocolate that bends or melts instead—an analogy for the gradual ground movement now observed.
The 2025 event left measurable marks across the region. The islands of Astypalaia and Naxos shifted by several centimeters, while the seabed near the submarine volcano Kolumbo subsided by nearly 20 centimeters.
Segou also highlights the need for Greece to upgrade its monitoring capabilities. Although scientists were able to analyze the Santorini crisis faster than in the past, the country still lacks advanced tools for real-time, high-resolution seismic imaging. Integrating artificial intelligence with seismic and geodetic data, she argues, would significantly improve the speed and accuracy of assessing emerging geological events.
