Greece is bracing for another surge in fuel prices, driven by mounting tensions in the Persian Gulf that risk igniting a fresh spike in global oil costs. On Sunday, Iran’s Parliament approved a measure allowing for the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint for global energy shipments. The move has intensified fears of a supply shock, with analysts warning that crude oil prices could leap from $78 to as high as $90 per barrel.
Such a spike would almost certainly cascade into the Greek market, putting renewed pressure on consumers and businesses already navigating a fragile economic recovery.
Should these forecasts come true, the price of unleaded gasoline in Greece is expected to exceed €2 per liter for the first time in months, reigniting concerns about the cost of living and economic stability.
The effects of these geopolitical developments are already visible in the domestic market. According to the Greek Secretariat for Commerce and Consumer Protection, refinery prices rose sharply — up to 6.4% — within just four days between June 16 and 20. The increases were recorded across all fuel types. At HELLENiQ ENERGY, the price of 95-octane unleaded petrol rose by 1.82%, reaching €1,297.841 per cubic meter, with similar changes reported at Motor Oil. The premium 100-octane fuel also increased by 1.73% at both refineries, now priced at €1,367.180 per cubic meter.
The most dramatic spike was seen in diesel fuel, which plays a vital role in transportation and agriculture. Diesel prices jumped by over 6.4%, exceeding €1,110 per cubic meter. Auto LPG also saw a rise of 2.36%, while prices for industrial fuels such as propane and butane moved upward as well. Notably, kerosene — critical for aviation — surged by nearly 12%, reaching €700.220 per metric ton.
These wholesale increases quickly made their way to the pump. On Thursday, June 19, the average retail price for 95-octane petrol in Greece stood at €1.752 per liter. A day later, that figure had climbed to €1.784. Similar jumps were recorded across the board: 100-octane petrol rose from €1.960 to €1.994, diesel from €1.507 to €1.604, and autogas from €0.875 to €0.896 per liter — all in just 24 hours.
Experts warn that these figures may only be the beginning. If the closure of the Strait of Hormuz materializes and oil prices hit $90 per barrel, retail fuel costs could rise by as much as 15%. In such a case, unleaded petrol could reach €2.05 per liter, premium fuel €2.29, diesel €1.85, and autogas might surpass €1 per liter for the first time.
The broader economic consequences would be significant. Road and maritime transport — both freight and passenger — would face immediate cost increases, leading to higher fares and freight rates. This would burden businesses and consumers alike, while professional drivers, transporters, and taxi operators could find themselves struggling with unsustainable operational expenses. Adjustments in service pricing would likely follow.
The tourism sector, a key pillar of the Greek economy, could also feel the strain. Airlines are expected to increase ticket prices due to higher kerosene costs, potentially deterring travelers — particularly those planning short trips or traveling to more remote locations. Tourists who rely on rental cars or drive their own vehicles would face higher fuel expenses, which could cut into spending on other areas like dining, entertainment, and shopping.
Rising fuel prices also mean higher production costs for farmers and manufacturers. These industries, heavily reliant on diesel for machinery, transport, and heating, would see their overheads grow, costs that would ultimately be passed on to consumers. This chain reaction could push inflation higher, affecting household budgets and reducing purchasing power.
Inflation in Greece had shown signs of easing in recent months, but a sharp rise in fuel and energy costs threatens to reverse that progress. The prices of essential goods, transport, and energy could rise significantly, sending the consumer price index upward once more. For the European Central Bank, which is already balancing the competing priorities of economic recovery and inflation control, a new energy shock would only complicate the picture further.
