Greece’s long-running demographic decline has entered uncharted territory. In 2025, the country recorded fewer than 70,000 births, the lowest number ever registered in its modern history. Deaths continue to far outnumber births, leaving the natural population balance deeply negative and reinforcing concerns about the country’s long-term social and economic sustainability.
The figures underline a structural problem that has been building for more than a decade. Since the early 2010s, Greece has consistently recorded more deaths than births, a trend that experts say is unlikely to reverse even if fertility rates stabilise in the coming years. The result is a steadily shrinking and rapidly ageing population.
According to projections by Eurostat, Greece’s population is expected to decline by around 14 percent by 2050 and could fall to approximately 7.3 million by the end of the century. Demographic ageing, once discussed as a future risk, is now clearly visible in official data and is already shaping the country’s labour market, welfare system and public finances.
Official figures released in late 2025 show that Greece’s permanent population stood at an estimated 10.37 million on January 1, 2025, marking a marginal annual decline. This decrease would have been considerably larger without positive net migration, as arrivals from abroad partly offset the population loss caused by the excess of deaths over births.
Early data for 2025 point to a historic low in births. According to figures presented by labour law professor Alexis Mitropoulos on national television, Greece recorded the fewest births since comparable records began in 1932. He noted that the past four years have been the worst on record and estimated that between 2011 and 2025 the country “lost” around 600,000 births compared with earlier demographic trends.
The scale of the decline is stark. In 2010, the year Greece entered a severe sovereign debt crisis, the country recorded nearly 115,000 births. By 2025, that figure had fallen to just over 66,500, reflecting a continuous downward trajectory. Between 2011 and 2024 alone, Greece registered roughly 510,000 more deaths than births, contributing to an overall population decline of about 715,000 people, according to estimates by the national statistical authority.
Recent population projections by the United Nations and Eurostat converge on a sobering conclusion: the negative balance between births and deaths in Greece is effectively irreversible over the coming decades. Even under more optimistic scenarios, demographic momentum and population ageing are expected to keep natural population growth firmly in negative territory through at least mid-century.
Analysts point to a combination of economic and social factors behind the collapse in fertility. Prolonged economic uncertainty, high unemployment among young adults, long working hours, and limited access to affordable childcare and family support policies have all discouraged family formation. These pressures have been compounded by the lingering effects of Greece’s decade-long financial crisis and the rising cost of living.
The cost of raising children has become a central concern. Recent estimates suggest that raising a child in Greece from birth to adulthood costs between €215,000 and €233,000, depending on lifestyle and location, or roughly €1,000 per month. Housing affordability is another critical constraint, with studies indicating that access to affordable housing and mortgage financing has a positive impact on birth rates, while high rents and property prices act as a deterrent.
Unemployment, particularly among people aged 25 to 39, also plays a decisive role. Experts note that decisions about parenthood are frequently postponed during periods of economic instability, a pattern seen in many countries but especially pronounced in Greece after years of crisis.
