The 20-year contract, running from 2030 to 2050, provides for nearly 1 billion cubic meters of LNG per year, with options for expansion, and represents the first long-term deal ever concluded between a Greek company and an American LNG exporter.
Atlantic–See LNG Trade was created to oversee LNG trading, transportation and distribution throughout the region, with Aktor Energy holding a 60 percent stake and DEPA 40 percent. The agreement with Venture Global coincides with the American company’s investment in the Alexandroupolis FSRU in northern Greece, where it has already secured roughly a quarter of the terminal’s available capacity.
The new venture is also building out its commercial network beyond Greece. It has signed memoranda of understanding with Ukraine’s Naftogaz for up to 0.7 billion cubic meters of LNG annually from 2030, and with Romania’s Nova Power & Gas and Transgaz for around 1.4 billion cubic meters a year. Together these preliminary commitments amount to as much as 3.7 billion cubic meters and support the development of Europe’s emerging “vertical energy corridor,” which is designed to allow natural gas to flow northward from Greece into Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine through upgraded regional interconnections.
A critical pillar of the project is the creation of a proprietary LNG shipping fleet. Atlantic–See LNG Trade plans to acquire four new-generation LNG carriers at a cost of roughly $250 million each, bringing the total investment to around $1 billion. Owning its own fleet lowers chartering costs, ensures consistent transport availability and limits exposure to volatile global freight rates — all factors seen as vital for the project’s long-term operational stability.
Financing for these vessels is expected to rely heavily on support from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which has been active in several strategic projects in Greece. DFC’s involvement would allow the company to access long-term loans at lower interest rates than those offered by commercial banks, significantly reducing the equity contribution required from Aktor Energy and DEPA and improving the project’s projected returns.
The commercial rationale hinges on price differentials between U.S. LNG imports and sales into Eastern European markets, where wholesale gas prices traditionally trade at a premium to Western Europe. The minimum contracted volume of 1 billion cubic meters corresponds to around 10.5 terawatt-hours per year. At current trading margins of €5–10 per megawatt-hour, that volume would generate €52–105 million in annual gross profit, rising further in tight market conditions.
However, the outlook becomes more complex with the anticipated start of production at Romania’s Neptune Deep field in 2027, which is expected to add around 8 billion cubic meters of domestic supply. That additional output is likely to reduce regional gas premia and compress LNG trading margins by €2–4 per megawatt-hour. For Atlantic–See LNG Trade, this could mean losing €21–42 million annually on the minimum committed volume — a reflection of the narrower pricing spread that currently supports the project’s economics.
If all memoranda of understanding convert into firm contracts and annual volumes reach up to 3.7 billion cubic meters — about 38.8 terawatt-hours — the project’s profitability expands considerably even after adjusting for margin pressure. Before Neptune Deep’s impact, gross profit at full scale would range from €310 to €388 million, with the possibility of approaching €580 million in periods of high demand. A margin squeeze of €2–4 per megawatt-hour would reduce those figures by €78–156 million, but would not fundamentally threaten the project’s viability, particularly because a significant share of volumes would be directed to Ukraine, where price premia remain structurally high. Under the venture’s ownership structure, Aktor Energy captures 60 percent of net returns and DEPA 40 percent, giving Aktor potential annual revenues of roughly €186–233 million in the base expansion scenario, even after the anticipated effects of new Romanian supply.
For Aktor, participation in this project represents a strategic pivot as the company seeks to expand beyond construction and deepen its presence in energy and concession-based infrastructure. The LNG initiative forms the backbone of that shift, creating a predictable and long-term revenue base. The planned stock exchange listing of Aktor Energy would further strengthen the company’s financing capacity and support additional growth in the sector.
Beyond its corporate implications, the project reshapes energy dynamics across Southeast Europe. Greece’s emergence as a key gateway for U.S. LNG into the Balkans and Central Europe reconfigures relationships among major regional stakeholders, including the Greek gas transmission operator DESFA, the Alexandroupolis FSRU, Romania’s OMV Petrom, and Greece’s powerful LNG-shipping community.
For DESFA, rising flows through Alexandroupolis and Greece’s long-established Revythoussa terminal enhance regulated revenue streams, increase utilization of the national gas grid and may justify future expansions. At the same time, deeper integration with Balkan and Ukrainian markets exposes the system to regional demand swings that could require targeted capacity upgrades in the future.
The Alexandroupolis FSRU stands to benefit directly, given that Venture Global has already booked a substantial share of its capacity. Long-term U.S. supply combined with firm demand from Romania and Ukraine ensures stable utilization and revenue predictability in the terminal’s early years. But growing regional LNG demand could strain available capacity over time, potentially prompting consideration of further infrastructure expansion.
Romania’s OMV Petrom is affected more indirectly. New LNG volumes entering the Romanian market through partners of Atlantic–See LNG Trade broaden the country’s supply mix and improve overall energy security. Yet the influx also increases competition, which could put pressure on the company’s wholesale margins — a trend likely to intensify once Neptune Deep comes online, providing Romania with both additional domestic production and broader access to imported LNG.
Greek shipowning groups active in the LNG market face a mixed picture. While rising European LNG flows help sustain high global demand for LNG carriers — supporting freight rates and benefiting major Greek fleets — Atlantic–See LNG Trade’s decision to operate its own vessels reduces opportunities for long-term charters from third parties. This moves the new venture away from the spot and time-chartering markets where many Greek owners operate. Industry observers nevertheless note interest in whether the company may eventually order or charter ships from shareholders of Aktor, including well-known Greek shipowners Dimitris Bakos, Yiannis Kaymenakis, Ilias Gkotsis and Kostas Angelou.
