According to the Finance Ministry, VAT receipts are expected to reach €29.13 billion next year, up from €27.53 billion in 2025 — an increase of about 5.8%. This rise comes despite forecasts that private consumption will grow at a slower pace, from 1.9% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026, while inflation is set to ease to 2.2% from 2.6% this year.
Officials attribute this apparent discrepancy to changes in consumer spending patterns and an increase in nominal incomes. The ministry argues that higher earnings will likely be directed toward goods and services taxed at higher VAT rates, boosting state revenues even without a surge in overall consumption. However, this expectation depends heavily on continued employment stability and purchasing power—factors that could be undermined by external economic pressures.
The draft budget also anticipates a significant rise in household disposable income, driven by upcoming wage increases in the public sector from April, a new adjustment to the minimum wage in the private sector, and pension hikes that will not be offset by the so-called “personal difference.” If implemented as planned, these measures could strengthen household finances across a broad segment of the population. Yet uncertainty remains over whether this additional income will translate into higher spending or end up in savings, given lingering concerns about economic stability.
Tourism is expected to play a central role in the anticipated increase in VAT revenue. After a strong recovery in 2025, tourism receipts are projected to grow by another 6.5% in 2026, providing a significant boost to government income. However, these gains will depend on international developments, geopolitical stability, and Greece’s ability to maintain its competitiveness as a travel destination.
A similar outlook applies to the transport sector, where increased mobility—both domestic and international—could lift revenues from ticket sales and logistics services. The continued expansion of e-commerce is also expected to widen the tax base, though the pace of online spending will likely hinge on income growth and consumer confidence.
At the same time, the Finance Ministry highlights improvements in tax compliance as a crucial factor in boosting VAT revenues. The widespread adoption of electronic invoicing, the integration of cash registers with POS systems, and the use of digital accounting through the myDATA platform have all contributed to reducing tax evasion and increasing transparency. Nonetheless, officials acknowledge that further progress is needed, as only about 81.5% of VAT payments are currently made on time.
