Drawing from his extensive expertise on social movements and the interplay between technology and society, Aguiton provided a nuanced analysis of the evolving global landscape and the challenges it presents.
The Decline of Neoliberal Globalization
Aguiton partially agreed with economist Branko Milanovic’s claim that Donald Trump’s presidency marked the end of neoliberal globalization. He observed the global rise of far-right movements, though he refrained from labeling them fascist, distinguishing today’s far-right from the interwar period’s fascism, which aggressively targeted workers’ movements and communists. Instead, he described the phenomenon as “new authoritarianism” or «anti-liberal, populist far-right» terms he felt were more precise.
He pointed to two defining traits of this far-right resurgence. The first is the rejection of immigration and "the other," a stance reminiscent of interwar anti-Semitism. The second is the rise of nationalism, embodied by Trump’s “America First” slogan. This prioritization of national interests over international cooperation, Aguiton argued, symbolizes a departure from the neoliberal globalization that relied on institutions like the United Nations and climate agreements. Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord shortly after his inauguration exemplified this shift.
Economic Nationalism and Inequality
Aguiton attributed the turn toward economic nationalism to the failure of neoliberal globalization to deliver on its promises of widespread prosperity. While the wealthiest elites reaped massive benefits, the working class and middle-income groups, particularly in industrialized countries, saw little improvement. This disenfranchisement, he noted, has driven significant portions of these populations to support far-right movements, as they perceive themselves as globalization’s losers.
The rise of what Aguiton called “national neoliberalism” reflects varying economic approaches among far-right leaders. For instance, Trump advocates for protectionist measures to support industrial workers, even at the expense of environmental safeguards. In contrast, figures like Javier Milei in Argentina promote extreme neoliberal policies, dismantling social protections entirely. In Europe, far-right leaders like Marine Le Pen oppose pension reforms that harm workers, highlighting differences in economic policy among far-right movements.
A Transition in Global Power
Aguiton described the current era as a transitional phase between two global systems, drawing on Immanuel Wallerstein’s “world-systems” theory. For centuries, dominant powers like Britain and later the United States maintained global hegemony. Today, the relative decline of U.S. power is evident, challenged by rising nations like China, India, and Brazil.
This transition is marked by growing tensions, including the war in Ukraine and disputes in the South China Sea. Aguiton noted that such periods of global power shifts are often violent, as illustrated by historical parallels like Germany’s challenge to British hegemony in the 19th century. Trump’s “America First” doctrine, while less interventionist than previous U.S. foreign policies, has coincided with the rise of regional powers like Russia and China, creating a more uncertain and conflict-prone global landscape.
The Role of Technology and Big Tech
Aguiton highlighted the transformative role of Big Tech in reshaping global dynamics. Initially aligned with liberal values and countercultural movements, major tech companies have shifted their allegiances. Figures like Elon Musk represent a libertarian right-wing ideology, while Mark Zuckerberg navigates opportunistically.
This shift, Aguiton argued, reflects the growing influence of digital platforms in undermining state sovereignty. From the 1960s onward, the rise of multinational corporations and NGOs weakened traditional state power. The advent of the internet has further eroded state authority, creating a global pseudo-democracy where digital tools facilitate both progressive movements and the spread of far-right propaganda. These tools bypass state mechanisms, amplifying their impact and destabilizing traditional governance structures.
A World in Flux
Aguiton concluded by reflecting on the uncertainties of this era. While Trump’s presidency represents a retreat from globalization and a shift toward economic nationalism, the broader consequences for global trade and alliances remain unclear. What is certain, however, is that the world is undergoing a profound transformation, with traditional concepts of statehood and global governance facing unprecedented challenges. Aguiton emphasized that these changes demand careful navigation, as the new global order takes shape.
