Greece’s next election may be decided not by the opposition’s ability to overtake Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, but by former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s ability to reshape the conservative vote.
New Democracy remains firmly in first place at 26.5%, according to an Interview poll for Greek news outlet POLITIC. The Greek Left Alliance, or EL.A.S., slipped to 14.5% from 15.8% in July, widening the governing party’s lead to 12 percentage points.
PASOK stands at 10%, followed closely by the nationalist Greek Solution at 9%. The Communist Party is at 6.1%, while smaller parties remain in the low single digits. Undecided voters have risen to 10.6%, while another 6% choose an unspecified “other party.”
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The numbers leave New Democracy without an obvious challenger for first place. But they also reveal a vulnerability that could make Samaras a pivotal figure.
Twelve percent of respondents say they would be very or fairly likely to vote for a new party led by Samaras, who served as prime minister from 2012 to 2015 and previously led New Democracy. Another 8% say there is at least a small possibility they would support such a party.
That doesn't mean Samaras could command 20% in an election.But he wouldn't need to. Even a significantly smaller share could alter parliamentary arithmetic if much of it came from New Democracy. The governing party is particularly exposed on its right. Among its voters, 54.6% identify as center-right and 20.4% as right-wing, compared with 24% who describe themselves as centrists. Greek Solution’s 9% already demonstrates the existence of a substantial electorate to Mitsotakis’s right.
A Samaras candidacy could force the prime minister into a difficult balancing act: move right to contain conservative defections and risk losing centrist voters, or defend the political center while leaving space for Samaras and Greek Solution.
Voters' dilemma
That dilemma matters because voters increasingly appear to want political change without prolonged instability. The poll shows 51% favor elections now, against 46% who want the government to complete its term. At the same time, 60% want a government to emerge from the first ballot. Mitsotakis remains the strongest individual contender, with 29.3% naming him as their preferred choice for governing the country. “Nobody” follows at 19.2%, while Alexis Tsipras receives 13.4%.
Yet the broader mood is bleak. Sixty-five percent believe Greece is heading in the wrong direction, and 68% are little or not at all optimistic about their own lives over the next six months.
The result is an unusual political equation. New Democracy remains the favorite to win the election, but victory and the ability to govern may no longer be the same thing.
Samaras, if he enters the race, doesn't need to defeat Mitsotakis. He only needs to take enough votes from New Democracy to influence what government can be formed afterward. That could make the former prime minister the most consequential wild card of Greece’s next election.
