With less than a year before the program officially ends, Athens is under growing pressure to accelerate project implementation or risk forfeiting part of what has been one of the largest financial support packages in its modern history.
Greece secured €36 billion in total funding through the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility — an amount equal to 16.3 percent of its 2023 GDP — including €15.5 billion in loans intended to spur private investment in high-value projects. Yet, according to current estimates, as much as 25 percent of those loans will remain unabsorbed by the August 2026 deadline.
The loans were meant to be a key growth driver, leveraging additional financing from commercial banks, the European Investment Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. So far, loan agreements worth around €8 billion have been signed, corresponding to total investments of €17.5 billion. Only half of those funds have been disbursed, raising doubts about whether the remaining projects can move quickly enough through Greece’s traditionally slow bureaucracy.
Eurobank CEO Fokion Karavias said a realistic goal would be to sign 75–80 percent of the loan agreements by mid-2026. He noted that disbursements would continue beyond the official end date, but stressed that “the next eleven months are crucial for businesses to lock in the Fund’s low-cost financing.” While banks are reportedly ready to back the investment wave, the possibility of leaving a quarter of the funds untapped highlights ongoing inefficiencies in Greece’s investment planning and public-administration capacity.
The program has nevertheless helped Greece increase its fixed investments to 15.3 percent of GDP in 2023, up from 11 percent in 2019. But several major projects — including energy-efficiency schemes, hospital upgrades, new health centers, the digital overhaul of the railway system, the Crete North Highway, and carbon-capture infrastructure — are facing delays. The European Commission has urged the Greek government to reassess such projects and, if necessary, transfer them to the new 2021–2027 EU structural fund framework to avoid losing money altogether.
Athens now has about two weeks to finalize which projects will stay within the Recovery Fund and which will be shifted elsewhere. Brussels insists that funds must not only be spent but also demonstrate tangible results. Before the final tranches are released, EU auditors will conduct random checks to ensure that completed projects are fully operational.
Although Greece remains one of the top performers among EU member states in fund absorption, that standing could deteriorate if targets — especially in the green and digital transition sectors — are missed. The European Commission’s recent approval of a sixth payment worth €2.1 billion provided temporary relief, but further disbursements depend on meeting dozens of milestones. The finance ministry must submit the next payment request, for €3.5 billion, by mid-December, followed by two more installments totaling over €7 billion by August 2026.
The challenge now is not just administrative but existential for Greece’s post-pandemic growth strategy. If up to one-quarter of the loans remain unclaimed, the Fund’s economic impact will fall well short of expectations. Beyond the financial loss, it would represent a missed opportunity to modernize the economy, advance green transformation, and strengthen digital infrastructure — all central goals of the EU’s recovery agenda.
The government insists it can accelerate implementation through tighter coordination and streamlined approvals, but European officials have made one thing clear: there will be no extensions beyond 2026.
