The review comes within the framework of the European Semester, the regular monitoring process of member states’ economic and fiscal performance.
Brussels officials are particularly interested in updated forecasts for Greece’s primary and overall budget surpluses. According to estimates based on August data, the government expects the economy to once again exceed its targets. The fiscal surplus for 2025 is projected at close to one percent of GDP, against a goal of 0.7 percent, while the primary surplus is expected to surpass four percent of GDP, well above the target of 3.2 percent. Revenue gains from the clampdown on tax evasion are expected to feature prominently in the discussions.
These results, combined with the lower-than-expected rise in net primary spending in 2024, have already fueled speculation about additional fiscal relief measures next April, once Eurostat and the Hellenic Statistical Authority confirm the final surplus figures. This year, a similar fiscal outperformance allowed the government to introduce €1.1 billion in measures, including a €250 benefit for pensioners and partial rent reimbursements. EU technocrats want to know whether Greece intends to follow a similar course again in 2025.
Another key issue for the Commission will be the reduction of public debt. Greece is on track to cut its debt ratio by around eight percent of GDP in 2025 compared with 2024, while also reducing the debt stock in absolute terms.
Alongside the fiscal review, a team from the Commission’s Directorate for Fiscal Policy will travel to Athens to assess the final stretch of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Greece’s “Greece 2.0” program is in its last twelve months of implementation, and the mission will examine both the progress of funded projects and the achievement of milestones tied to the release of the final three tranches. The goal is to ensure that the country can absorb the full €36 billion it has been allocated.
