Greece, with its heavy reliance on tourism, may face particular challenges if gasoline prices climb from €1.80 to €2 per liter — a scenario examined in a recent pan-European study published in ScienceDirect.
The study points out that when energy costs increase significantly, households are forced to reprioritize their spending. Essential needs such as heating, lighting, and transportation take precedence, leaving less disposable income for non-essential activities like leisure travel. Because tourism is highly sensitive to changes in income, it is especially exposed during times of economic pressure.
For domestic tourism in particular, the effect of rising transportation costs could be severe. Traveling within Greece often involves road transport — either by car or bus — especially for visits to inland or lesser-known destinations.
A spike in fuel prices makes these trips more expensive and, therefore, less attractive to Greek holidaymakers, particularly those from middle- and lower-income groups. The study’s projections suggest that a fuel price increase from €1.80 to €2 per liter could lead to a 3–4% drop in domestic tourist arrivals to popular mainland destinations. This would likely be accompanied by shorter stays, reduced local spending, and a decline in travel to more remote regions — developments that would put added pressure on small and medium-sized tourism businesses.
While international tourism may appear more insulated from local fuel prices, the broader economic picture tells a more complex story. Airlines often hedge fuel costs, and ticket pricing varies significantly between markets, which may cushion the immediate impact. However, the indirect effects of rising energy prices — such as inflation and increased operational costs for hotels, restaurants, and transport providers — could ultimately make Greece a more expensive and less competitive destination in the global tourism market.
Greece’s vulnerability is further heightened by structural characteristics of its tourism sector. The country’s hospitality industry consumes relatively high amounts of energy, and the peak travel season is narrowly concentrated in just a few summer months. These factors make the industry more susceptible to sudden price shocks than in countries with year-round tourism or lower energy dependencies.
