According to political sources, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is expected to make key decisions around Easter regarding whether the country will head to snap elections.
The political climate has deteriorated significantly after an unprecedented development in Greek politics: around 20 members of parliament from the ruling party — more than one eighth of its parliamentary group — are reportedly facing prosecution in corruption-related cases. Additional legal case files are expected in the coming months, particularly related to the agricultural subsidy agency OPEKEPE, while new revelations are also anticipated regarding the wiretapping surveillance scandal. At the same time, political pressure continues over accusations that the government attempted to cover up responsibility for the Tempi train disaster, Greece’s worst rail accident.
The government is now widely seen as being under extreme political pressure. The prime minister reportedly no longer fully trusts his parliamentary group and has begun replacing ministers linked to the OPEKEPE scandal with technocrats from outside parliament, amid uncertainty over which other ruling party MPs may become implicated in future investigations.
Within government circles there is growing recognition that the administration may not be able to last until the end of its four-year term. Notably, political discussions no longer include talk of completing the full term or winning another outright majority. Instead, scandals are expected to dominate the political agenda for the foreseeable future, leaving little room for the government to promote new policy initiatives. The prime minister is also said to be unable to carry out a major cabinet reshuffle, raising further questions about how effectively the government can continue to govern.
As a result, early elections are increasingly viewed as the prime minister’s main political escape route — though not necessarily a path back to power. The scenario of snap elections is now openly being discussed within the prime minister’s inner circle.
Three possible election timelines are reportedly being considered. The first scenario involves immediate elections, potentially triggered during a parliamentary debate on the wiretapping scandal expected around April 16. However, this option is considered unlikely, as it could be interpreted as an admission of political failure and could create instability at a time of international uncertainty, particularly due to tensions and conflict in the Persian Gulf.
The second scenario involves elections in early summer, followed by a second election in July if no government can be formed — a common possibility under Greece’s electoral system. In that case, a national unity government without Mitsotakis could emerge as a potential solution. However, this timeline carries economic risks, including the possibility that Greece could lose remaining funds from the European Recovery Fund, while repeated elections during the summer could also negatively affect the country’s crucial tourism sector.
The third scenario involves elections in early autumn, after the annual economic policy announcements traditionally made by the prime minister at the Thessaloniki International Fair in September. The key question in this scenario is whether the government’s popularity would collapse in opinion polls before then and whether the administration could politically survive until autumn.
At the same time, another scenario is quietly entering political discussions: the possible resignation of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis at a later stage, which could trigger internal leadership moves within the ruling party, as potential successors position themselves for the future.
