While the 12-month budget execution pointed to a primary surplus of €8.1 billion at the general government level, the final figure is now expected to exceed €10 billion and could approach €11 billion. The improvement reflects stronger financial results across general government entities compared with 2024, according to data from the Ministry of National Economy and Finance.
Social security funds are projected to post a surplus of €2 billion in 2025, up from €1 billion the previous year. Public hospitals are expected to remain in surplus, recording €257 million, slightly below the €274 million reported in 2024. Local government authorities are forecast to swing into surplus at €67 million, from a deficit of €300 million a year earlier. Public law entities are also expected to improve their performance, closing 2025 with a surplus of €3.6 billion, compared with €3.53 billion at the end of 2024. Taken together, the financial outcome of general government bodies in 2025 is projected to be €1.42 billion stronger than in the previous year.
Tax revenues have also exceeded expectations. Over the 12-month period, tax receipts were €400 million higher than revised budget targets. Revenue collection is expected to be finalised at the end of February, following the payment of vehicle registration fees, the final instalments of income and property taxes, and the last value-added tax payments related to the previous year.
The stronger fiscal position is reinforcing expectations of further tax relief. The government has already indicated plans for measures affecting corporate taxation, social security contributions and targeted income support. Any new initiatives, however, must comply with the European Union’s revised fiscal rules, which cap annual growth in public spending.
A key source of additional, rule-compliant fiscal space is revenue generated from efforts to combat tax evasion. Under the EU framework, such revenues reduce the effective spending ceilings applied to member states. In 2024, the collection of €2 billion from tax evasion reduced Greece’s eligible spending growth by 0.3 percentage points, compared with an agreed ceiling of 2.6 percent.
Government officials have previously said that the margin for spending increases over the 2024–2026 period amounted to €10 billion, a buffer that has largely been used following tax reforms already implemented for salaried workers. However, if part of the 2025 primary surplus reflects additional tax-evasion revenues—estimated at between €800 million and €1 billion—these funds could be fully channelled into new tax cuts without breaching fiscal constraints.
Additional fiscal room may also come from tighter expenditure management. By the end of the 2025 budget execution period, public spending was €3.49 billion below target, largely due to delays in transfer payments to general government entities and the rescheduling of cash outlays for defence procurement. While defence-related expenditures are expected to be carried out in full at a later stage, improved financial performance among government entities could allow part of the delayed transfers to remain permanently within the state budget.
