In its latest Fiscal Monitor report, the IMF forecasts that Greece will maintain primary budget surpluses averaging above 2.3% of GDP through 2030, while reducing its public debt by more than 15 percentage points of
GDP—placing it among the global leaders in debt consolidation.
According to the report, Greece, along with Cyprus and Portugal, is expected to achieve one of the most substantial debt reductions among IMF member states, despite the challenges posed by ongoing trade tensions and a slowing global economy. By contrast, countries like Belgium, France, and Slovakia are projected to see their debt burdens grow by as much as 10% of GDP over the same period.
The IMF estimates that Greece’s public debt will fall to 125.1% of GDP by 2030, down from 150.9% in 2024.
These figures include deferred interest payments on loans from the European Financial Stability Facility, which the IMF factors into its “gross” debt calculation. A key driver of this downward debt trajectory is the continuation of strong primary surpluses—public budget balances excluding debt servicing costs.
While the IMF’s forecast for 2024 anticipates a surplus of 2.9%, it had not yet incorporated Greece’s recently announced 4.8% surplus for 2023.
Government revenues are expected to remain high, exceeding 49% of GDP in 2025 and 2026, before gradually declining but staying above 45% through 2030.
This sustained revenue performance suggests that Greece will not need to introduce new taxes in the near term to meet its fiscal goals.
At the same time, public spending is forecast to increase gradually, reaching over 51% of GDP by the end of the decade. The report notes that demographic pressures—particularly an aging population—are likely to contribute to rising expenditure over time.
