Greece is experiencing a profound demographic shift that is reshaping the country’s social and economic landscape. The core working-age population is shrinking while the number of elderly citizens is rising at an unprecedented pace, a trend that economists warn will put mounting pressure on the labour market, public finances, and the pension system.
Data from the Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE), analysed by researcher Ioannis Cholezas, show that since 2008 the number of Greeks in their thirties has dropped by roughly 700,000, while the population aged over 65 has grown by more than 400,000. Overall, between 2008 and 2025, Greece will have lost over 720,000 residents — about 8.5% of its total population — with the steepest declines in the 30-to-44 age group and among 25-to-29-year-olds, the latter shrinking by nearly 30%. The only groups to grow in recent years are teenagers aged 15–19, thanks to temporary birth increases, and those over 65, driven by rising life expectancy.
The causes are a familiar but volatile mix: persistently low birth rates, the emigration of young professionals during and after the financial crisis, and steadily rising death rates.
This combination has pushed the ratio of workers to pensioners down to 1.7 to 1, far from the 4 to 1 economists consider necessary for a sustainable pension system. The European Commission predicts that by 2030 the old-age dependency ratio — the number of people over 65 for every 100 of working age — will reach 46% in Greece, compared to an EU average of 42%. That would mean roughly three million elderly citizens supported by just 6.5 million working-age people.
Until the late 2000s, births in Greece, as in much of Europe, were rising. But after 2010 the trend reversed sharply. By 2023, the number of births had fallen by 40% compared with 2000, more than double the 21.5% decline recorded across the EU-27. Death rates, meanwhile, have risen steadily, peaking during the COVID-19 pandemic and easing only slightly since. Life expectancy is expected to climb to 80.5 years for men and 85.5 for women by 2030, but an ageing population means that the overall number of deaths will continue to outpace births.
Migration offers only partial relief. Greece’s migration balance is generally positive, with more people arriving than leaving, except during the financial crisis years of 2010–2015 and again in 2021. Yet the composition of the population is changing. The share of foreign nationals has fallen from 6.5% in 2008 to 3% in 2024, while the proportion of university graduates has grown from 34.4% to just over 40%. Analysts believe this rise would have been even greater had fewer highly educated young people emigrated.
The European Commission forecasts that Greece’s population will fall to around 10 million by 2030, a drop of more than 4% compared with 2022. Policymakers are already weighing responses, from raising the retirement age to increasing workforce participation among women, young people, and people with disabilities. KEPE notes that the country’s demographic trajectory depends on the balance of births, deaths, and migration — and for now, the negative forces are winning.
